We've all heard the saying that hindsight is 20/20. Looking back, it's easy to see how events unfolded, connect the dots, and understand the causal relationships that led us to where we are today. But what about foresight? Is it possible to look forward with the same level of clarity? Can we predict the future? The short answer is no, at least not with absolute certainty. But the practice of foresight allows us to anticipate a range of possible futures and systematically analyze them. By doing so, we can make better decisions in the present that will positively impact our future.
To that end, for 20 years PTIS and its futurist partners have led a triennial, pre-competitive program called the Future of Packaging with dozens of companies, each looking out over the next three, five, and 10 years. Participants have included CPGs and retailers large and small, as well as packaging converters and raw material suppliers—who leverage the outputs and insights to develop strategic plans for their Packaging Organizations and Companies.
Participating companies send two to three representatives to three unique sessions throughout the year where they learn and participate in facilitated work sessions and networking with their industry peers. They’re essentially co-creating the future of packaging. Past meeting locations included Microsoft’s Home and Office of the Future, NASA, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the University of Georgia’s Material Science Center, and Arizona State University’s College of Global Futures. This initiative informs participants’ strategies, plans, and investments.
Track record of identifying trends
Future of Packaging participants say they are positioned to be ahead of the curve by identifying and preparing for significant shifts in the packaging industry. One notable scenario included considering the spike in oil prices to $145 per barrel (2008) at a time when the actual price was less than $60 and industry experts said it would top out in the mid-$90s (2007). Such foresight allowed companies to make strategic adjustments, mitigating risks and seizing opportunities.
Another significant insight was the emphasis on sustainability in 2004 when it was barely a term in the industry lexicon. In September 2006, it was pushed to the forefront of business, when Walmart‘s Chairman, Lee Scott at the Clinton Global Initiative proclaimed, “Supplier Packaging Scorecard and Virtual Trade Show will reduce the environmental impact and cost of the 160,000 products.” By projecting the growing importance of sustainable practices, the Future of Packaging helped companies integrate eco-friendly measures into their operations, setting them up for early success in an increasingly environmentally conscious market.
Companies that have participated in these programs report being better prepared for the future, equipped with a clear vision and understanding of what is needed for effective implementation.
PTIS and its partners look beyond current trends to identify the potential for Horizon 3—transformational changes that could dramatically impact how packaging is produced, sold, and integrated into the circular economy. Their scenarios for the world of packaging in 2035 offer a glimpse into the future, helping companies build strategic roadmaps to guide them through to the next generation of packaging.
Long-Term packaging trends to watch
While the industry has been talking about recycling for decades, all of that effort has not yet led to a major boost in recovery rates, which have hovered around 34% for a while, and are much lower for many materials. We feel the industry is about to embark on a transformation driven toward a circular economy of packaging—one where recycling plays a role but coupled with far more reusable/refillable and compostable packs, driven by the digitization of packaging. The use of QR codes that enable tracking of deposits, AI that identifies packaging for sortation (food grade HDPE vs. non-food grade), and in store refill models all will drive the transformation. We need to stop asking what can we do to participate in this transformation and move to what must we do drive this transformation.
But recycling isn't the only big picture trend to watch. Futurist Josh Calder, a partner at Foresight Alliance, facilitates part of the PTIS Future of Packaging program. He says that futurists focus on both the short- and long-term trends that could disrupt industries. In packaging, several other global forces could reshape the landscape over the next few decades. Recycling was the first that sprung to mind for PTIS, but here are five more to watch from Josh Calder:
- Global Demographic Shifts: While many developed nations are facing aging populations, countries in Africa and other parts of the developing world are experiencing youth bulges. Packaging companies may soon face increased demand from these markets, as well as a potential labor shortage in more developed economies. Immigration could become a sought-after resource, with businesses competing for talent.
- Clean Energy and Sustainability: Clean energy and sustainability will be key to production processes. This could involve rethinking everything from sourcing materials to logistics and consumer sales, all with an eye toward reducing environmental impact.
- Water Scarcity: Packaging companies may need to consider how they use water in production. With cities around the world facing “Day Zero”—when water runs out—future packaging solutions may need to be more water-efficient or help address the scarcity crisis.
- AI and Automation: The rise of AI and automated technologies could revolutionize packaging logistics, production, and even consumer interactions. While this creates opportunities for efficiency, there are also uncertainties about how quickly these technologies will be adopted and their broader social impacts.
- Geopolitical Tensions: As global polarization increases, businesses must prepare for geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains. Tariff wars and other trade disruptions may force packaging companies to rethink their global strategies, diversify their sourcing, and localize production where feasible.
The next Future of Packaging program will commence in January 2025 and will look to identify those next transformational ideas and issues that will drive packaging into the next decade. PW
