A new report, Quarterly Economic Outlook Planning For First Quarter of 2018, conducted for PMMI Business Intelligence by ITR, says the majority of segments of the US core economy are expanding, and leading indicators corroborate expectation of accelerating growth into the first half of 2018.
Rising global demand and higher commodity prices contributed to growth in US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders and both US Wholesale Trade of Durable Goods and Nondurable Goods.
The report says to plan for increasing volume and higher costs over the next three quarters if your business is related to the industrial economy. US Industrial Production is accelerating, up 1.3% year over year in October. The manufacturing and mining components of US Industrial Production are expanding while the utilities sector declines.
US consumers are finding themselves in an optimal economic situation consisting of rising real wages, low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, a rising stock market, and relatively-low commodity prices.
US Personal Care Products Production during the 12 months through September was down 3.4% from one year ago.
Production is trending within the forecast range, which is unchanged since the previous report. Production will transition to a rising trend in early 2018 which will extend through the end of the year.
Expect Production to decline mildly during 2019. Despite the decline, Production in 2019 will remain above today’s level of activity.
US Soap, Cleaning Compound, and Toilet Preparation Production, a six-month leading indicator, is up 2.8% year over year (quarterly data). This supports ITR’s forecast for Personal Care Products Production to rise imminently.
Recent decline in the US Chemical Industry Capacity Utilization Rate signals that year-over-year decline in Production could extend through the first half of 2018 and poses a downside risk to the forecast. Ascent in this sector will provide growth opportunities for PMMI member companies over the next year and a half.
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